Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.447581 0.519225 0.598009 0.690982 0.797617 0.916007 1.057334
2025-05-18 0.323964 0.419516 0.535799 0.687310 0.879076 1.113256 1.420457
2025-05-25 0.254251 0.356560 0.490504 0.677834 0.932087 1.264064 1.729185
2025-06-01 0.209184 0.313307 0.458061 0.672568 0.980687 1.405299 2.032452
2025-06-08 0.171536 0.272336 0.420093 0.650463 0.998154 1.500286 2.276562
2025-06-15 0.158047 0.263915 0.426366 0.690956 1.107567 1.733726 2.739956
2025-06-22 0.133536 0.234130 0.395441 0.669417 1.118609 1.819851 2.988852
2025-06-29 0.113884 0.209031 0.368031 0.648843 1.126865 1.899777 3.232596
2025-07-06 0.098467 0.188717 0.345504 0.632747 1.139179 1.985230 3.490716
2025-07-13 0.090092 0.179643 0.340833 0.646172 1.201933 2.158257 3.908875
2025-07-20 0.085591 0.177043 0.347136 0.679401 1.302112 2.403016 4.471090
2025-07-27 0.079628 0.170729 0.345677 0.697815 1.376767 2.608952 4.982175
2025-08-03 0.072571 0.161472 0.337914 0.704148 1.431097 2.786128 5.463194
2025-08-10 0.065244 0.150641 0.325783 0.700594 1.466282 2.931694 5.900294
2025-08-17 0.058270 0.139514 0.311579 0.690951 1.487965 3.052908 6.301002
2025-08-24 0.052553 0.130315 0.300182 0.685589 1.517287 3.190777 6.745415
2025-08-31 0.046161 0.118598 0.281849 0.663076 1.508190 3.250821 7.038787
2025-09-07 0.045222 0.119708 0.292039 0.704315 1.639055 3.606264 7.965401
2025-09-14 0.039984 0.109488 0.275137 0.682379 1.629386 3.668636 8.285824
2025-09-21 0.035434 0.100312 0.259498 0.661427 1.619444 3.728937 8.606129
2025-09-28 0.031675 0.092623 0.246454 0.645033 1.618020 3.807071 8.971159
2025-10-05 0.029915 0.090065 0.245784 0.658706 1.688443 4.050050 9.721980
2025-10-12 0.029281 0.090545 0.252879 0.692548 1.810529 4.419674 10.789033